🎯 Expected Return Calculator
Calculate the probability-weighted expected return of an investment using up to three possible outcome scenarios.
What is expected return?
Expected return is a weighted average of possible investment outcomes, where each outcome is weighted by its probability of occurring. It gives a single summary number that represents the average result you’d expect if the scenario played out many times.
The formula
Expected Return = Σ (Probability of outcome × Return of outcome). This calculator normalizes your entered probabilities so the math still works even if they don’t add up to exactly 100%, though for the most accurate result your probabilities should sum to 100%.
This tool is for general educational and planning purposes only. Expected return is a theoretical average, not a prediction, and actual investment outcomes can differ significantly and involve risk of loss.