🦠 Outbreak Spread Simulator Calculator
Enter a starting case count, a basic reproduction number, and a number of generations to see a simplified illustration of exponential case growth.
What this calculator does
This is a simplified educational model that shows how case counts can grow generation by generation when each infected case, on average, produces a fixed number of new cases.
How the calculation works
Cases after N generations equal the initial case count multiplied by the reproduction number raised to the power of N: Cases = Initial × R0N. Elapsed time multiplies the number of generations by the average generation interval. Doubling time uses the standard exponential-growth relationship, log(2) ÷ log(R0), scaled by the generation interval.
This is a basic illustrative branching model for general educational use, not a real epidemiological forecasting tool — actual outbreaks are shaped by immunity, interventions, population limits, and many other factors this simple formula ignores.