🎲 EMV Calculator – Expected Monetary Value
Estimate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of a decision or risk by weighing the probability and payoff of each possible outcome.
%
$
%
$
%
$
What is Expected Monetary Value?
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is a risk-analysis technique used in project management and decision-making to quantify the average outcome of a decision when the future is uncertain.
The formula
EMV = Σ (Probability of Outcome × Monetary Value of Outcome). This calculator sums the weighted payoff of a best case, likely case, and worst case scenario. For the result to be meaningful, the three probabilities should add up to 100%.
EMV is a planning estimate, not a guarantee — real outcomes can fall outside the scenarios modeled.
Last reviewed August 2026